Author 1, Article 5, Date: 9/18/2016.
Donald Trump’s ascension to his biggest lead of the general election campaign in Ohio is fueled by a pair of surprising sources: newfound Republican Party unity and increased voter trust.
Buried in the data of recent polls showing Trump with as much as a 5-point lead in a four-way race are indications that after months of skepticism, GOP voters are unexpectedly supporting Trump to a greater degree than Democratic voters are backing their nominee, Hillary Clinton. And the surveys also indicate Ohio voters now believe that Trump is more “honest and trustworthy” than Clinton.
Of course, the polls are all but certain to change between now and Election Day. Political surveys have proved to be especially volatile this year; one even has Clinton up 7 points in Ohio. But it’s indisputable that Trump is doing better.
Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight website says the GOP nominee has a 57 percent chance of winning Ohio. A month ago, Silver put Trump’s odds at less than 25 percent of taking America’s top bellwether state.
Even Clinton’s campaign manager, Robby Mook, noted the overall national trend in a fundraising appeal Friday: “One or two polls would be an outlier. But nearly every public poll in the past few weeks has shown Trump closing the gap.”
即使是克林顿的竞选经理, Robby Mook在星期五的筹款呼吁中强调了这个全国的（民调）趋势:“一个或两个投票可能是异常值。但是几乎每一个公共民意调查在过去几周已经显示出川普在弥合差距。”
In an attempt to flesh out these bare-bones numbers, The Dispatch contacted numerous participants in the final 2012 Dispatch Poll to see whether those who supported Barack Obama four years ago are now behind Clinton, and whether Mitt Romney’s backers have transferred their allegiance to Trump.
为了充实这些基本的数字, （哥伦布的）Dispatch 报联系了2012Dispatch最终调度的很多人。正是为了知道这些四年前支持了奥巴马的人是否现在支持克林顿，并且（原来）罗姆尼的支持者是否已经将他们的联合效忠了川普。
Unsurprisingly, in most cases they are voting along party lines. But in a race in which every percentage point matters, the shift of even a small share of Ohio GOP voters solidly into Trump’s camp could prove significant.
“I never did like the guy,” said Daniel Brosey, 68, of Hamilton, who favored a straight GOP ticket in the 2012 poll. “But it seems like in the last month somebody’s gotten ahold of him and tamed him down a bit. I think he can negotiate better deals for our country.”
Joe Valentour, 57, also likes Trump — now.
“He wasn’t my first choice of candidates, but Hillary Clinton has a long history of basically being a socialist. I think she’s a bad person,” said the Dayton resident, another poll-taker who backed Romney and all GOP candidates running statewide in 2012.
“Trump wants to reduce taxes. He wants to reduce the intrusion of government.”
At the same time, some who said they were voting a straight Democratic ticket four years ago are abandoning Clinton.
“I still consider myself a Democrat, but unfortunately I think I’m going to be voting for Jill Stein this year,” said Brian Jarrell, 53, of Cleveland, who works for Veterans Affairs.
“我仍然觉得自己是一个民主党人,但不幸的是我认为我今年要投票给Jill Stein,” 53岁的克利夫兰为退伍军人事务工作的Brian Jarrell 说
“I feel Hillary Clinton may be a little too corporate and eager to engage in military intervention.”
Michael Leffler said he had been a Bernie Sanders supporter, not a Trump fan, but as he wrote an email responding to The Dispatch, he quickly switched parties.
迈克尔莱弗勒说他被伯尼桑德斯的支持者,不是特朗普的粉丝, The Dispatch的电子邮件回复中显示,他很快改换了支持的政党。
“Actually, as I type this the more frustrated I get at the (Democratic National Committee) for not allowing a more viable candidate to run,” said the 34-year-old from Canton.
“I will vote for Trump. He has no bloody past in wars. So I changed my mind. Donald Trump 2016.”
While Trump struggled for months to win over Ohio Republicans who lined up behind Gov. John Kasich, that could be changing as well.
Carlos Womble, 77, of Lima, still says he’d vote for Kasich over Clinton. But he’s fallen in line behind Trump because of his business background and trust issues with Clinton.
Like virtually every poll involving two major-party presidential candidates viewed with contempt by a large percentage of the electorate, many voters readily confess they are struggling with their choice this year.
“Hillary Clinton is not perfect, but she’s the lesser of two evils. I don’t want Trump to be elected,” said Andrew Messina, 42, of Concord, a Democrat who works in the insurance business.
“I tried to be as fair-minded as possible and really do my own research on what the candidates stand for. In the world view, the election is embarrassing. It’s become more of a reality show than a presidential campaign.”
“Trump isn’t fit to be president,” is how Democrat Dennis Wilmouth, 66, of Akron, explained his support for Clinton. Oh, and this: “Now that the main function of the Supreme Court is to decide political fights, I prefer a Democrat to vote on the nominees.”
“Hillary Clinton is prepared to be president and I don’t want a horrible person like Donald Trump to be the leader of our already great country,” said Jessie Bigley, 74 of Marietta. “I know Hillary has some problems, but I trust her more than Donald Trump.”
Republican Donna Parsely, 50, Canal Winchester, said she “maybe” will vote for Trump — “because I do not trust Ms. Clinton.”
For many others from the 2012 poll, there’s no doubt about who will get their vote.
Clinton backer Brandon Hoffman, 24, of Gahanna, said, “I believe in her vision of unity over division. I believe in progressive economic and social ideals. … Also I do not consider her a racist, xenophobic sociopath.”
On the other side, Dale Baehr, 54, of Columbus, said, “I believe Trump is a strong get, better leader who is much more trustworthy and honest. He is a conservative (more so) who will try to change the system that became corrupt.”