中英对照:俄亥俄最新民调动态 共和党选民在俄亥俄为川普聚集

中英对照:俄亥俄最新民调动态 共和党选民在俄亥俄为川普聚集

Author 1, Article 5, Date: 9/18/2016.

(本贴参加OCAA征文大赛“俄亥俄华裔谈美国总统大选”)

重要声明

作者翻译此文谨供可以理解中文的读者阅读讨论。此翻译不代表作者的政治立场。

分析数据

The Dispatch 9.18 Republicans rallying for Trump in Ohio

分析方法

人工加机器翻译。

分析结果

 

Donald Trump’s ascension to his biggest lead of the general election campaign in Ohio is fueled by a pair of surprising sources: newfound Republican Party unity and increased voter trust.

唐纳德特朗普在俄亥俄州大选(民调的)最大领先正得到一些意外(支持者)来源的助力:新的共和党大联合和不断增加的选民信任。

Buried in the data of recent polls showing Trump with as much as a 5-point lead in a four-way race are indications that after months of skepticism, GOP voters are unexpectedly supporting Trump to a greater degree than Democratic voters are backing their nominee, Hillary Clinton. And the surveys also indicate Ohio voters now believe that Trump is more “honest and trustworthy” than Clinton.

最近的民意调查据显示,特朗普在四位候选人的竞赛中有五个百分点的领先。经过几个月的(对川普的)怀疑,共和党选民们出乎意料地大幅支持川普胜过了民主党选民支持他们的候选人希拉里克林顿的程度。同时,调查也显示俄亥俄州选民现在认为,特朗普比克林顿更“诚实守信”。

Of course, the polls are all but certain to change between now and Election Day. Political surveys have proved to be especially volatile this year; one even has Clinton up 7 points in Ohio. But it’s indisputable that Trump is doing better.

当然,民意调查是几乎肯定会从现在到选举日改变。今年政治调查已被证明是特别不稳定,一个(民调)甚至说克林顿在俄亥俄州领先了7个百分点。但是,毋庸置疑的,特朗普做地更好。

Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight website says the GOP nominee has a 57 percent chance of winning Ohio. A month ago, Silver put Trump’s odds at less than 25 percent of taking America’s top bellwether state.

Nate Silver的FiveThirtyEight网站说,共和党候选人有57%的机会赢得俄亥俄。一个月前,特朗普赢下美国最大风向标州(俄亥俄州)的几率不到25%。

Even Clinton’s campaign manager, Robby Mook, noted the overall national trend in a fundraising appeal Friday: “One or two polls would be an outlier. But nearly every public poll in the past few weeks has shown Trump closing the gap.”

即使是克林顿的竞选经理, Robby Mook在星期五的筹款呼吁中强调了这个全国的(民调)趋势:“一个或两个投票可能是异常值。但是几乎每一个公共民意调查在过去几周已经显示出川普在弥合差距。”

In an attempt to flesh out these bare-bones numbers, The Dispatch contacted numerous participants in the final 2012 Dispatch Poll to see whether those who supported Barack Obama four years ago are now behind Clinton, and whether Mitt Romney’s backers have transferred their allegiance to Trump.

为了充实这些基本的数字, (哥伦布的)Dispatch 报联系了2012Dispatch最终调度的很多人。正是为了知道这些四年前支持了奥巴马的人是否现在支持克林顿,并且(原来)罗姆尼的支持者是否已经将他们的联合效忠了川普。

Unsurprisingly, in most cases they are voting along party lines. But in a race in which every percentage point matters, the shift of even a small share of Ohio GOP voters solidly into Trump’s camp could prove significant.

不出意料, 在大多数情况下他们是按党派立场投票。但在一个每一个百分比都很重要的竞赛中,即使是一小部分的来自共和党选民内部的转变(使得共和党选民)坚定到特朗普的营地,这也是很显著的(变化)。

“I never did like the guy,” said Daniel Brosey, 68, of Hamilton, who favored a straight GOP ticket in the 2012 poll. “But it seems like in the last month somebody’s gotten ahold of him and tamed him down a bit. I think he can negotiate better deals for our country.”

“我从来没有喜欢过这个家伙“,(俄亥俄)汉密尔顿的,在2012年毫无疑问地说要支持共和党的68岁的Daniel Brosey说,”但似乎在上个月有人找了他(川普)并驯服了他。我认为他可以为我们的国家谈判得到更好的交易。”

Joe Valentour, 57, also likes Trump — now.

57岁的Joe Valentour现在也喜欢川普。

“He wasn’t my first choice of candidates, but Hillary Clinton has a long history of basically being a socialist. I think she’s a bad person,” said the Dayton resident, another poll-taker who backed Romney and all GOP candidates running statewide in 2012.

“他不是我的第一选择的候选人,但希拉里克林顿(Hillary Clinton)是一个有着悠久历史的社会主义者。“我认为她是一个坏人”,这位代顿居民说。这位代顿居民之前支持过罗姆尼和2012年全州范围内参选的共和党人。

“Trump wants to reduce taxes. He wants to reduce the intrusion of government.”

“特朗普想降低税收。他想要减少政府的干涉。”

At the same time, some who said they were voting a straight Democratic ticket four years ago are abandoning Clinton.

与此同时,一些人说四年前他们直接投民主党票的人,现在正放弃克林顿。

“I still consider myself a Democrat, but unfortunately I think I’m going to be voting for Jill Stein this year,” said Brian Jarrell, 53, of Cleveland, who works for Veterans Affairs.

“我仍然觉得自己是一个民主党人,但不幸的是我认为我今年要投票给Jill Stein,” 53岁的克利夫兰为退伍军人事务工作的Brian Jarrell 说

“I feel Hillary Clinton may be a little too corporate and eager to engage in military intervention.”

“我觉得希拉里克林顿(Hillary Clinton)可能有点和公司走得太近和渴望军事干预。”

Michael Leffler said he had been a Bernie Sanders supporter, not a Trump fan, but as he wrote an email responding to The Dispatch, he quickly switched parties.

迈克尔莱弗勒说他被伯尼桑德斯的支持者,不是特朗普的粉丝, The Dispatch的电子邮件回复中显示,他很快改换了支持的政党。

“Actually, as I type this the more frustrated I get at the (Democratic National Committee) for not allowing a more viable candidate to run,” said the 34-year-old from Canton.

“事实上,当我写下这些的时候,我得到的更多的沮丧,(因为)(民主党全国委员会)不接受一个更可行的候选人去(竞选总统)”。

“I will vote for Trump. He has no bloody past in wars. So I changed my mind. Donald Trump 2016.”

“我会投票给川普。他没有血腥的战争过去。所以我改变了我的想法。唐纳德特朗普2016。”

While Trump struggled for months to win over Ohio Republicans who lined up behind Gov. John Kasich, that could be changing as well.

当过去几个月川普挣扎着去赢取支持州长John Kasich的俄亥俄共和党人(选票)的时候,一切也在改变。

Carlos Womble, 77, of Lima, still says he’d vote for Kasich over Clinton. But he’s fallen in line behind Trump because of his business background and trust issues with Clinton.

77岁的Carlos Womble,还说他会投票给卡西奇而不是克林顿。但是,他还是选择了川普,因为他的商业背景和克林顿的信任问题。

Like virtually every poll involving two major-party presidential candidates viewed with contempt by a large percentage of the electorate, many voters readily confess they are struggling with their choice this year.

如几乎所有调查所示,许多选民承认今年他们面临的选择很艰难。

“Hillary Clinton is not perfect, but she’s the lesser of two evils. I don’t want Trump to be elected,” said Andrew Messina, 42, of Concord, a Democrat who works in the insurance business.

“希拉里克林顿并不完美,但她是两害取其轻。我不想川普当选,”安德鲁梅西纳42岁康科德人,一个从事保险业务的民主党人说。

“I tried to be as fair-minded as possible and really do my own research on what the candidates stand for. In the world view, the election is embarrassing. It’s become more of a reality show than a presidential campaign.”

“我试着尽可能公正并且自己研究候选人的立场。在世界观上, 这次选举令人尴尬。它变得更像真人秀而不是总统竞选。”

“Trump isn’t fit to be president,” is how Democrat Dennis Wilmouth, 66, of Akron, explained his support for Clinton. Oh, and this: “Now that the main function of the Supreme Court is to decide political fights, I prefer a Democrat to vote on the nominees.”

“特朗普不适合做总统“,阿克伦的66岁的民主党人Dennis Wilmouth说,。他解释了对克林顿的支持。哦,这样的:“现在,最高法院的主要功能是裁决政治斗争,我更喜欢一个民主党人去选择(最高法院的)候选人。”

“Hillary Clinton is prepared to be president and I don’t want a horrible person like Donald Trump to be the leader of our already great country,” said Jessie Bigley, 74 of Marietta. “I know Hillary has some problems, but I trust her more than Donald Trump.”

“希拉里克林顿准备成为总统,我不希望这样一个可怕的人唐纳德特朗普领导我们伟大的国家,”74岁的Jessie Bigley说。“我知道希拉里有一些问题,但我相信她比唐纳德特朗普多。”

Republican Donna Parsely, 50, Canal Winchester, said she “maybe” will vote for Trump — “because I do not trust Ms. Clinton.”

50岁的共和党人Donna Parsely说,她“可能”会投票给特朗普——“因为我不相信克林顿小姐。”

For many others from the 2012 poll, there’s no doubt about who will get their vote.

从大多数2012年受过调查的人那里知道,许多人很坚定地说谁会得到他们的选票。

Clinton backer Brandon Hoffman, 24, of Gahanna, said, “I believe in her vision of unity over division. I believe in progressive economic and social ideals. … Also I do not consider her a racist, xenophobic sociopath.”

24岁的Gahanna的克林顿支持者布兰登霍夫曼说,“我相信她团结而不是分裂的主张。我相信渐进式经济改革和社会理想…我也不认为她一个种族主义,排外的变态。”

On the other side, Dale Baehr, 54, of Columbus, said, “I believe Trump is a strong get, better leader who is much more trustworthy and honest. He is a conservative (more so) who will try to change the system that became corrupt.”

另一边,现年54岁的哥伦布的Dale Baehr,说,“我相信特朗普是一个强大的更好的领导人。他(川普)更值得信赖和诚实。他是一个保守的(应该是更保守)试图改变腐败系统的候选人。”

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