中英对照：40%的独立选民如何影响大选

Author 1, Article 6, Date: 9/18/2016.

（本贴参加OCAA征文大赛“俄亥俄华裔谈美国总统大选”）

文章背景

本周，CNN的民意调查显示，川普在关键摇摆州（Ohio和Florida）首次超越希拉里，实现暂时性领先。CNN调查数据表明（如下），川普在独立选民中领先优势更大（42%：34%）。本文介绍美国独立选民的比例，成长的历史原因，和对大选的影响。

JUST IN: New CNN/ORC polls show Trump’s national gains extend to Florida and Ohio http://cnn.it/2cOk7wC

重要声明

作者翻译此文谨供可以理解中文的读者阅读讨论。此翻译不代表作者的政治立场。

分析数据

The rise of the independent voter

分析方法

人工加机器翻译。

分析结果

The United States has two major political parties: Democratic and Republican. Ask an American voter which one she or he sides with, and the most likely answer is: “neither.”

美国两个主要政党:民主党和共和党。（当下）问一个美国选民,他或她支持哪一个,最有可能的答案是:“一个都不是”。

Recent polls say at least 4 in 10 Americans identify as politically independent, even if they tend to “lean” Republican or Democratic on the issues. Only 3 in 10 identify as Democrats and the other 3 in 10 identify as Republicans. The Gallup polling organization calls this a “near historical low” for both major parties.

最近的民意调查说, 至少40%的美国人认为自己是政治独立的,即使他们在某些议题上倾向于共和党或民主党。30%的选民自认为民主党，还有30%的选民自认为是共和党。盖洛普民意，调查称两大政党（这一支持率现象） “接近历史低点”。

America’s founders did not envision political parties, but even under George Washington, the first president, factions arose, with Americans divided by the issue of how much power the new central government should have.

美国的创始人并没有遇见不同政党（的诞生）。即使在第一任总统乔治华盛顿时期，美国人民因为中央政府应当有多大权利的议题产生分裂的时候，也没有出现（不同政党）。

It’s a generational thing

这是一代人的事情

What is behind the rise of unaffiliated or “independent” voters? Young people, says Nebraska State Senator Adam Morfeld. He says voters in their 20s and 30s are less likely than their parents to identify with a political party.

“独立”的选民背后是什么?“年轻人”,内布拉斯加州州议员亚当Morfeld说。他说,选民在20和30岁的年纪，不太可能比他们的父母更认同某一个政党。

Young Americans are driving the surge of independent voters — a bloc large enough to decide the presidency.

年轻的美国人导致了独立选民数量的飙升——一个足以决定总统的（政治投票）集团。

“I think that’s a generational thing,” Morfeld adds. “People — young people in particular — are identifying less and less with institutions, not just political institutions but institutions in general, and more with causes. ” He’s observed the trend both as a political candidate and as the executive director of a nonprofit organization that encourages youth political participation.

“我认为这是一个时代的事,”Morfeld补充道。“人们——尤其是年轻人——越来越少用机构定位自己,不仅是政治机构,而是一般意义上的机构,而是更多地因为（可以为一些原则而付之行动的）目标。“ 他观察到的一种趋势，政治候选人和非营利组织的执行董事都鼓励青年参与政治。

Morfeld cites the prevalence of more complex and diverse news sources as one reason party ties have loosened. Before cheap and unlimited information became available over the Internet, he observes, political organizations played a much bigger role in bringing like-minded voters together and motivating them to support a candidate or platform.

Morfeld认为，更为复杂和多样化的新闻来源的流行，是使得党派关系松散的原因之一。他观察到，在廉价和无限两的互联网信息诞生之前，政治组织，在联系志趣相投的选民和鼓励他们支持一个候选人的问题上，可以发挥更大的作用。

Parties still control political infrastructure

党派仍然控制政治基础设施

Despite the growing numbers of political independents, there are still advantages to affiliating with one of the two big parties. Candidate selection is one: Some states have “closed” primary elections in which only registered party members can vote.

尽管出现越来越多的政治独立选民,从属于两大政党之一仍有（一些）优势。选择（党内）候选人是优势之一:在一些州 “封闭”的初选中,只有注册党员才能投票。

Even so, Democrats and Republicans will keep reaching out to independents — because that’s where the votes are.

即便如此,民主党人和共和党人将继续接触无党派人士——因为这样才能赢得选票。