Biden Won, But the Party Lost
Will the Democrats Learn the Lessons in Time to Win Georgia?
By HistoryStudent
New York, November 19, 2020, EST 4:00
Biden Won DecisivelyBiden finally won the White House with a nationwide
popular vote of 79.4 million /51.0%, carrying 25 states and DC with 306
electoral votes. Biden’s decisive victory was indeed historic on at least
three accounts: the most popular votes in America’s history, the oldest
president when elected, and the first candidate who won after three attempts.
Four years ago, Trump called his win of 302 electoral votes “a historic
landslide”, now he lost exactly in a reverse. Can anyone still say HISTORY is
boring? However, I bet most people would welcome the sense of GRACE back to
the White House because Biden has never bragged his victory as “a historic
landslide.” Most importantly, Biden’s winning margin of 3.8% and over 5.7
million popular votes – which is still growing as some states still counting
their votes – was big enough to overcome the built-in advantage by the
Electoral College in favor of the Republicans. After Gore’s margin of more
than half million popular votes in 2000, Clinton’s margin of almost 3 million
popular votes and 2 percentage points was still not enough in 2016. Since
the end of Civil War, there have been four occasions in presidential elections
when a candidate lost the popular vote but entered the White House through the
back door of the Electoral College. And all these four candidates were
Republicans: Hayes in 1876, Harrison in 1888, W. Bush in 2000, and Trump in
2016. Since 1992, there have been eight presidential elections. The Republican
party has lost popular votes in all but one in 2004, but grabbed the keys to
the White House in 2000 and 2016 through the Electoral College, a political
compromise in the slavery era. Had Trump repeated the Electoral College trick
this time, the will of the majority voters would have been overturned in three
of six presidential elections since 2000 at a 50% frequency. Nevertheless, at
33.33% (two of six) it is still a stunning high frequency for the will of
people being suppressed when the Constitution starts these three words, “We
the People”. So, the presidential election in America is indeed “rigged”
because the Electoral College allows one side to win the presidency with only
23 to 27 percent of the popular votes, and it has always benefitted one
particular party.
The Democratic Party LostBack to this election. There was no blue wave as many
expected. While Biden’s victory was decisive, there was no resounding
repudiation of Trump who gained the second most votes in history, more than
73.5 million (47.2%), a significant increase from his 63.0 million votes
(45.9%) in 2016. A side bar, Trump is going down in history as the only White
House-tenant who sneak in from the backdoor and had always been rejected by
the majority of American people during his entire 4-year term.More alarmingly,
the Democratic Party did much worse than the polls suggested before the
election. In the 435 House races nationwide, the party so far won 75.2 million
votes at 50.4% compared to the Republican party’s 71.9 million votes at 48.3%.
Although the 2% winning margin allowed the Democratic party to retain the
majority in the House, it has net lost eight seats with 9 still to be decided.
It means about 4.2 million voters voted for Biden but did not vote for the
party candidates for the House. The 35 Senates races were statewide elections,
the Republicans had 23 seats to defend, while the Democrats only 12. On paper
it should have been a good year for the Democrats who had a winning ticket on
the top of the ballot and just needed a net gain of 4 to win an outright
majority. However, the Democrats managed to flip only two seats and net gained
only one in the Senate because they lost in two states where Biden won: Maine
and Georgia. In Maine, Biden won over 420,000 votes (53.5%) handily defeating
Trump’s 342,000 votes (43.5%); however, Collins, the GOP incumbent, was re-
elected with over 385,000 votes (50.6%) easily defeating her Democratic
opponent who got only about 325,000 votes (42.7%). There were about 95,000
Biden voters who did NOT vote for the party candidate. In Georgia, Biden won
2.47 million votes (49.52%) edging Trump’s 2.46 million votes (49.23%);
however, Perdue, the GOP incumbent, got 2.46 million votes or 49.7% almost
exactly the same as Trump did, while his Democratic opponent who got only 2.37
million votes or 48.0%. There were about 100,000 Biden voters who did NOT vote
for the party candidate.
There Is No Massive Vote FraudWith such significant split voting in both the
House and in the Senate races, the first logical conclusion we can certainly
draw is there was no evidence of massive organized vote fraud by either party.
On November 12, 2020, a broad coalition of Federal election infrastructure
officials and state election officials declared that the 2020 Election was the
“most secure in American history” and there “is no evidence that any voting
system deleted or lost votes, changed votes, or was in any way compromised.”
Trump then tweeter-fired Chris Krebs, the director of the Cybersecurity and
Infrastructure Security Agency for speaking the truth.Another side bar,
Hillary Clinton gave a gracious concession speech one day after the 2016
election, while Obama invited Trump to the White House the next day, and Biden
welcome Pence to his office. So, in the 2016 election a Democratic candidate
won the popular vote during a Democratic administration, the Democrats did not
cry voter fraud; By contrast in the 2020 election, a Republican candidate lost
both the popular vote and electoral vote during his own administration, but
now he and his crowd are crying voter fraud? What is the definition of sore
loser again? But more importantly for Trump and his GOP enablers in Congress,
where is the respect for the will of people, what happened to their oath to
the Constitution? Since when the definition of democracy has changed to “Only
way we lose is if election is rigged.”The second obvious conclusion would be
the majority voters clearly fired Trump from the White House, but more than
four million Biden voters were unease about the Democratic party, not to
mention the fact that Trump increased his popular votes by more than 10.5
million.
The Hard Question Facing the Democratic PartyLike many people I was deeply
shocked to see Trump got 10.5 million more votes, but that is another question
for another day. For now, I want to focus on what was in the mind of those
four million plus voters who voted for Biden but did not vote for the party in
congressional races nationwide? We need to understand why they decided to
split their votes at the very moment of filling their ballot. The answer to
this question has nothing to do with voter suppression or gerrymandering, nor
anything to do with holding rallies or door-knocking.In particular, the party
should take a close look at those 195,000 voters in Maine and Georgia, and
find out what motivated them to vote for Biden, and what drove them away from
the party’s senate candidates? Had the party gained the support from these
195,000 voters, the Democrats could have already gained the control of the
Senate and sent Mitch McConnell into the minority. Why were these voters
comfortable with Biden but not the party? If the Democrats and its allies fail
to seriously reflect on this question, there will be more troubles in 2022
because Trump and the GOP have expanded their reach in many segments of the
electorates.
“Black Lives Matter” v. “Every Life Matters”While this author fully
understands the historical background since the slavery era and the numerous
killings of black persons by police officers with no accountability in most
cases in recent years, the “Black Live Matter” (BLM) slogan has been very
counter-productive in gaining broad sympathy and support from other
communities because it has unavoidably caused other groups to question “does
it mean our lives do not matter?” or to simply stay aside “since it is about
only black lives, not about our lives.” This is really a self-inflicted
blunder on both strategic and tactical levels. Why not call for “Every Life
Matters”? Most, if not all, of Americans know and agree our country was
founded upon this basic principle: “All men are created equal”. Again, this
author supports the BLM movement, but believes with “Every Life Matters”, the
movement could have a far better chance to rally the broadest support possible
from all walks of society, regardless of race, gender, age, sexual
orientation, etc. Remember, Dr. King championed the civil rights movement for
all people, not just blacks, his “I have a dream” speech was inclusive of both
blacks and whites.
“Defund the Police” v. “Rule of Law” / “Justice for All”While this author
shares the deep sense of injury by the systemic racism and the immense
frustration by the lack of justice, this “Defund the Police” (DLP) slogan is
another reckless blooper on a much greater scale. While the BLM slogan has
failed to gain broad support, the DTP slogan has simply scared away a
significant portion of the general public, and alienated many good men and
women in the law enforcement. Yes, this author is aware that the city of
Camden in 2014 abolished the old police department, but it immediately rebuilt
a whole new one. Hence, the example actually proves DTP is not only a pure
fantasy, but also irresponsible because the logical follow-up question is
“what happens after defunding the police? Lawlessness?” DTP is a means to no
good end at all. To overcome the resistance of police union among others
institutional problems, what is needed is comprehensive policing reform with
overwhelming support from the public who is more likely to identify with
“Every Life Matters”. Even though Biden has repeatedly denounced riots and all
violent protests, and rejected defunding police, the DTP slogan has enabled
Trump to borrow Nixon’s playbook presenting himself as the candidate of “Law
and Order”, and portraying Biden and the Democrats as lawless, while Trump in
fact is the one who has intentionally inflamed racial-driven violence. While
the 1994 Crime Bill authored by Biden became a controversial issue during the
2020 campaign, it was a significant effort by the Democratic Party and Bill
Clinton to wrestle the issue of crime away from the Republicans. Indeed, it
was quite successful in neutralizing this issue in the 1996 campaign. Yes,
reasonable people of good-faith can argue the goods and bads about the 1994
Crime Bill, and learn the lessons from it, but remember, hindsight is always
2020. It is quite unfair for some within the party to take potshots on Biden
during the primary campaign; and it is even more self-inflicting to hand the
“Law and Order” card back to Trump and the Republicans.Ultimately, everyone
wants “the Rule of Law” and “Justice for All”. Those tragic killings of
unarmed black people among others by police were grave assaults to these two
basic principles identified by all Americans. Most, if not all, Americans want
those individual police officers, like everyone else, to be subject to the due
process under the rule of law so that justice can be served for all,
particularly for the victims and their family? Again, Biden rightly rejected
the DTP slogan because it will never help us gain the broadest support from
all Americans to achieve the ultimate goal of “the Rule of Law” and “Justice
for All”. So, why not call for “the Rule of Law” and “Justice for All”?
“Socialism” v. “Opportunity for All”Using the label of “Socialism” to attack
the Democrats has long been the GOP’s one of the primary dirty tricks. Trump
simply followed the same playbook. Yes, Sanders has proclaimed himself a
Democratic Socialist, but he is not even a registered Democrat. The Democratic
Party has been grossly inept in fighting back this GOP/Trump dirty trick. As
NYT reported on November 5, 2020, while a majority of Latinos including Cuban-
Americans, have supported and been benefited from the Affordable Healthcare
Act (ACA), a.k.a Obamacare, but 52% of Cuban-Americans in Florida voted for
Trump and GOP candidates who have repeatedly attempted to repeal the ACA. In
fact, like many public polls the Kaiser Family Foundation’s tracking poll
(KFF) reported on October 16, 2020 that a clear majority of 55% Americans now
favors the ACA. More perplexingly, many Venezuelan-Americans voted for Trump
who opposed the Temporary Protection Status (TPS) for Venezuelan immigrants
while Biden and the Democrats supported TPS because of the on-going political
crisis and social unrest in Venezuela. Why did these voters “bite the hand
that feeds them?” The NYT reporter explained that “some of those voters are
genuinely afraid of socialism”. While perhaps these voters have mistaken
authoritarianism for socialism, Trump, a real genius in this regard, saw the
opening to attack Biden and the Democrats, who have utterly failed to respond.
Hopefully many readers can still remember the long 12 years of Reagan/Bush
during which the Democratic Party was relegated to the political wilderness.
The GOP was very successful in playing the cards of “Soft on Crime” and “Big
Tax Big Spending Socialism” against the Democrats. Bill Clinton and his
moderate wing brought the party back to power for eight years by claiming the
political center through “Opportunity for all, Responsibility from all”
(OFARFA), another principle all Americans identify with.OFARFA means a
civilized society with compassion (remember the Bushes?) will help those who
are willing to take the self-initiatives and work hard for themselves. For
example, this author believes most, if not all Americans, would agree it is a
worthy and reasonable goal to make public college education affordable to all
people who choose public college education. And few people like freeloaders.
Therefore, the slogan such as “Free Tuition” for public colleges hands the GOP
another huge hammer to attack the Democratic party. Why not propose “Interest
Free Student Loans” that would be interest free if repaid in full with in ten
years of graduation? Such proposal would be consistent with the two principles
of OFARFA. Many parents already have such interest free agreement with their
children, and people who have no children or do not go to college would be far
less against this idea. After all, the cost of subsidizing loan interest is
much less than the total loan cost, hence far more affordable for the federal
budget and far more acceptable to the majority of taxpayers. The fact is, even
most parents understand it is a terrible idea to let their children know they
can spend four years on college campus without any responsibility and
consequence. OFARFA also means a civilized society with the rule of law will
hold the rich and the powerful accountable for their wrongdoings. Having
inherited the worst financial crisis and economic recession since the Great
Depression, the Obama administration understood it had to bail out the Wall
Street in order to prevent a total economic collapse, which otherwise would be
far more devastating to ordinary people in all walks of life. However, by
failing to hold the big banks on Wall Street accountable, Obama and the
Democrats alienated a big portion of the public who became the base for the
Tea Party and readily susceptible to Trump’s “drain the swamp” even though the
GOP and Trump have always done far more in deepening and benefitting from the
swamp. It is the height of hypocrisy for the GOP and Trump, but also the
height of political-malpractice for the Democratic Party who suffered a
shellacking defeat the 2010 midterm election. These are just three examples
of many inept messaging for the Democratic Party and its allies to reflect.
There is no deny that the GOP and Trump have always been cunning in their
messaging because they have no substances beyond tax cuts and deregulations.
Heck, the RNC did not even bother with coming up a party platform this year.
Meanwhile the DNC published a 92-page 2020 party platform, compared to the
50-page 2016 party platform. The sad truth is not many electorates have time
and/or attention-span to read through the party platform, but most voters will
respond to ear-catching messages. The Democratic Party and its allies must
learn to fight back the GOP/Trump with stronger messages supported by better
solutions than the other side.An effective message should be not only
consistent with the value we hold dear (e.g. “Every Life Matters”, “Justice
for All” and “Opportunity for all, Responsibility from All”), but also
appealing to the broadest electorates, and most of all, not open for any
unintended misinterpretation or any intentional manipulation. Based on these
Communication 101 criteria, “BLM”, “DTP” and “Socialism” are really NOT the
best messages to win as many votes as possible in as many communities as
possible.
Which Party is the Extreme Radical?The history since the end of the Cold War
has shown that only by firmly holding the center of the political spectrum can
the Democratic Party win the broadest public support from the general public
and advance social reform step by step. Since Clinton won Georgia in 1992 and
Arizona in 1996, Biden was the first Democrat to win Georgia and Arizona. This
was no accident, because Biden has always been a moderate centrist Democrat
like Clinton. Trump and the Republican Party have always called the Democratic
Party as being the radical far left. Well, let’s take a look at the tax codes
since most people care about how much taxes they have to pay. Putting the
Nordic countries aside, let’s see Germany and the U. K. where yours truly once
worked and lived more than five years. In Germany, the Christian Democratic
Party has been in power for over 15 years since 2005. The highest tax bracket
in Germany is 45%. The Conservative Party in the UK has been in power for 10
years since 2010. The highest tax bracket in the UK is also 45%. Clinton,
Obama and Biden all want the highest tax rate kept at 39.6%, that is more
conservative than the conservative party in Germany and the U.K.! In fact,
compared with the major political parties among the developed democracies, the
Republican Party in the U.S. holds the most lonely and radical position on
many major issues, such as climate change, progressive taxes, minimum wage,
equal pay for equal work, women’s right to choose, equal right for marriage,
basic healthcare, gun safety, equal voting right without voter suppression,
campaign finance, transparency (e.g. full disclosure of personal assets and
taxes) against public corruption and conflict of interest, and so on.
Will the Democrats Learn the Lessons?Now there are two runoffs for the Senate
in Georgia. This is the last chance for the Democratic Party to gain the
control of the Senate, and the last chance for the Biden administration to
have a realistic chance to effectively advance much-needed reforms. Besides
the hypocrisy – even Ted Cruz couldn’t deny – of always crying out loud
deficit and debt only when a Democrat in the White House, here is the GOP
long-standing well-drilled playbook:
- Obstruction against Democrat’s every initiative (even when Obama adopted their ideas, such as the Obamacare from Romneycare, the cap-and-trade idea from Bush 41, renewal of the 1994 Federal Assault Weapons Ban supported by Ford and Reagan, etc.);
- Grinding the government to dysfunction until the next election cycle, then turnaround;
- Deceiving the electorate to blame the Democrats for the dysfunction they intentionally caused.
The masterpiece of such obstruction-grinding-deceiving-blaming in recent years
was the failed immigration reform in 2013. After the bipartisan immigration
bill was passed 68-32 in the Senate, John Boehner, a Republican, the then-
Speaker of the House of Representatives, never allowed the Senate bill to be
debated and voted on the House floor? Why? Because he knew given a vote the
Senate bill would have been passed, Obama would have scored another major
achievement, and the Republican Party would not be able to continue to attack
Obama and the Democrats on immigration issues and “open border”. The fact is
that Obama deported 3 million people during his eight years in power, the most
ever on record so far.Unfortunately, the GOP’s such play has worked too many
times. However, “Fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me.” The
question is this, whether will the Democratic Party and its allies learn these
lessons to formulate more effective messaging and practical solutions that can
(1) earn the broadest support possible from all segments of the electorates,
and (2) give the GOP and Trump little chance to smear and divide? Will they
learn in time to win the two runoffs in Georgia? If not, get ready for four
more years of gridlock and dysfunction in Washington while the pandemic
crisis, the economic crisis, the racial crisis and the climate crisis will
continue to deepen and wreck the lives of all ordinary people across the
country.
本系列链接：
《2020大选系列01》美国新冠死亡人数突破20万！综合比较各项指标全球排名第几？《2020大选系列02》489名退休将领和前国安官员公开信：支持拜登，反对特朗普《2020大选系列03》特朗普千方百计地掩盖个人财务和税表的危害在哪里？《2020大选系列04》美国新冠感染人数突破750万！全球新冠统考排名落后的原因《2020大选系列05》一位87岁的退役老兵共和党选民在生命的最后时刻的最后抉择《2020大选系列06》为什么说2020年总统大选很可能是美国民主宪政的最后机会《2020大选系列07》2020年亚裔美国选民调查报告（上）：参政意识依然有待提高《2020大选系列08》2020年亚裔美国选民调查报告（下）：亚裔关心的议题和价值倾向《2020大选系列09》民主党和共和党，谁主政的经济业绩更好《2020大选系列10》民主党和共和党，谁更能创造就业，降低失业《2020大选系列11》民主党和共和党，谁更能降低联邦赤字和国债《2020大选系列12》民主党和共和党，执政实绩鲜明差别的根本原因《2020大选系列13》民主党和共和党，关于排华法案的历史和移民问题的事实《2020大选系列14》特朗普在2016年大选中作出了许多承诺，实际纪录如何？《2020大选系列15》民主党和共和党，两党主要施政纲领具体政策的对比《2020大选系列16》民主党和共和党，两党在国防外交贸易以及一些社会问题上的对比《2020大选系列17》“我输了，只能是因为选票舞弊”，真相如何？《2020大选系列18》拜登赢了，但民主党对比预期大失所望
参考链接：
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- https://www.gov.uk/income-tax-rates
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Massachusetts_health_care_reform
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Immigration_Reform_and_Control_Act_of_1986#:~:text=The%20Immigration%20Reform%20and%20Control%20Act%20altered%20US%20immigration%20law,companies%20that%20employed%20illegal%20immigrants.
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- https://www.cato.org/blog/deportation-rates-historical-perspective
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