22位总统候选人的Acceptance Speech自然语言分析:克林顿夫妇最不Open川普更有总统相

22位总统候选人的Acceptance Speech自然语言分析:

克林顿夫妇最不”Open”川普更有”总统相”

Author 1, Article 1, Date: 9/1/2016.

(本贴参加OCAA征文大赛“俄亥俄华裔谈美国总统大选”)

背景:都说希拉里不可信,尽说好听话。都说川普嘴大冒失,说话没有维和感。他俩这两种截然不同的个性和历届总统比如何?从说话方式看,希拉里和川普谁更有总统相呢?

数据:20 best presidential acceptance speeches + Hillary and Trump’s.

Ten best Democratic acceptance speeches of all time

分析方法:基于自然语言处理的性格分析方法,具体方法参见 IBM Watson Personality Insights

结果:分析了美国22位总统候选人的acceptance speech文本数据后。单从speech style上看,克林顿家族相比其他成功上位的总统,“最不open”。agreeable值也一定程度反映了总统像。该值越高通常说明讲稿说的都是好听的话。可是大部分伟大的总统好像不会在这一点上为了话好听而退而求其次,罗斯福总统的agreeable分值才6,其他大部分也都很低呢。希拉里克林顿在openness分值倒数第二,仅高于她老公96年参选的情况。希拉里克林顿的好听话指数排名第一,是不是心虚的表现呢?希望不是!据此纯数据分析猜测,我得出的结论是Donald trump在acceptence speech中表现得更有总统相。

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局限性:此分析只考虑到一次演讲的文本数据,并非个人言论风格的全面代表。不过,作为参选最重要的演讲之一,acceptance speech还是在一定程度上反映一个候选人的特点的。

指标说明(附件):

Openness: Higher: Intellectually curious, emotionally-aware, sensitive to beauty and willing to try new things. Lower: Preferring the plain, straightforward, and obvious over the complex, ambiguous, and subtle.

Emotional range:Higher: More likely to have negative emotions or get upset. It could mean they are going through a tough time. Lower: More calm and less likely to get upset. It does not mean they are positive, or happy people.

Conscientiousness:Higher: More self-disciplined, dutiful, or aiming for achievement against measures or outside expectations. Lower: More likely to prefer the spontaneous over the planned.

Introversion/Extraversion:Higher: More energetic and pronounced engagement with the external world. Likes high group visibility, talking, and asserting themselves. Lower: Needs less stimulation and are more independent of their social world. It does not mean they are shy, un-friendly, or antisocial.

Agreeableness:Higher: Value getting along with others. They have a more optimistic view of human nature. Lower: Value self interests over others. They are more skeptical of others’ motives.

The science behind the methodology

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